Credit in pesos slows down: it only increases by 2.5%, in line with inflation.

In September, the total balance of loans in pesos to the private sector rose 2.8% monthly in nominal terms, reaching $82.8 trillion, representing a year-over-year growth of 98.0%, compared to $47.8 trillion at the close of the same period last year. Regarding real changes, monthly growth reached 0.6%, and annual growth was 50.0%. To analyze real changes, we must estimate the CPI for the recently concluded month of September, as it has not yet been published by INDEC. Professional studies that share their estimates in the media place it around 2.2% for the aforementioned month and 32% for the cumulative total for the last 12 months. ¨A quarter has come to an end during which the overall variation in the portfolio in pesos has had modest growth in real terms: barely 2.5% above inflation values, for known reasons, demand has declined due to the rise in rates and supply is much more cautious due to the increase in delinquency indicators¨, explained Guillermo Barbero, partner at First Capital Group.